23 December 2006

Warren Buffet's rules

There was a one hour interview on CNBC with Warren Buffet, the second richest man who has donated $31 billion to charity. Here are some very interesting aspects of his life:

1. He bought his first share at age 11 and he now regrets that he started too late!


2. He bought a small farm at age 14 with savings from delivering newspapers.

3. He still lives in the same small 3 bedroom house in mid-town Omaha, that he bought after he got married 50 years ago. He says that he has everything he needs in that house. His house does not have a wall or a fence.


4. He drives his own car everywhere and does not have a driver or security people around him.

5. He never travels by private jet, although he owns the world's largest private jet company.


6. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, owns 63 companies. He writes only one letter each year to the CEOs of these companies, giving them goals for the year. He never holds meetings or calls them on a regular basis.

7. He has given his CEO's only two rules. Rule number 1: do not lose any of your shareholder's money. Rule number 2: Do not forget rule number 1.


8. He does not socialize with the high society crowd. His past time after he gets home is to make himself some pop corn and watch television.

9. Bill Gates, the world's richest man met him for the first time only 5 years ago. Bill Gates did not think he had anything in common with Warren Buffet. So he had scheduled his meeting only for half hour. But when Gates met him, the meeting lasted for ten hours and Bill Gates became a devotee of Warren Buffet.


10.Warren Buffet does not carry a cell phone, nor has a computer on his desk.

11. His advice to young people: Stay away from credit cards and invest in yourself.

08 December 2006

By all means - Marry!

Only married people can give their words of wisdom on the benefits(?) of wedded life. Some wise cracks have given their wisecracks below.

Read on and enjoy!!!

I recently read that love is entirely a matter of chemistry. That must be why my wife treats me like toxic waste - David Bissonette

When a man steals your wife, there is no better revenge than to let him keep her - Sacha Guitry

After marriage, husband and wife become two sides of a coin; they just can't face each other, but still they stay together - Hemant Joshi

By all means marry. If you get a good wife, you'll be happy. If you get a bad one, you'll become a philosopher - Socrates

Woman inspires us to great things, and prevents us from achieving them - Dumas

The great question... which I have not been able to answer... is, "What does a woman want? - Sigmund Freud

I had some words with my wife, and she had some paragraphs with me - Anonymous

"Some people ask the secret of our long marriage. We take time to go to a restaurant two times a week. A little candlelight, dinner, soft music and dancing. She goes Tuesdays, I go Fridays." - Henny Youngman

"I don't worry about terrorism. I was married for two years." - Sam Kinison

"There's a way of transferring funds that is even faster than electronic banking. It's called marriage." - James Holt McGavran

"I've had bad luck with both my wives. The first one left me, and the second one didn't." - Patrick Murray

Two secrets to keep your marriage brimming

1. Whenever you're wrong, admit it,
2. Whenever you're right, shut up.

- Nash

The most effective way to remember your wife's birthday is to forget it once... - Anonymous

You know what I did before I married? Anything I wanted to - Henny Youngman

My wife and I were happy for twenty years. Then we met - Rodney Dangerfield

A good wife always forgives her husband when she's wrong - Milton Berle

Marriage is the only war where one sleeps with the enemy - Anonymous

A man inserted an 'ad' in the classifieds: "Wife wanted". Next day he received a hundred letters. They all said the same thing: "You can have mine." - Anonymous

And finally, a joke:

First Guy (proudly): "My wife's an angel!"
Second Guy: "You're lucky, mine's still alive."



Have you seen my other blog?

jokes fun comedy slapstick laughter is the best medicine laugh hillarious wife comedy marriage jokes wedding jokes husband wife relationships teenagers teens party rugby quotations quotes quotable

15 November 2006

Best buy Nov 16 2006

BEST BUY RECOMMENDATION

(Note: The shares recommended here are purely from my personal analysis as a hobby and I do not take any responsibility for the outcome of the decisions of the user based on my recommendations)

Recommendation for 16 November 2006

Limited risk High return

Buy Vijaya Bank Futures above Rs.57. Current Market price is Rs.54.40.

Targets Rs.67 & Rs.73 (Holding period 1 month - roll it over if the price targets are not achieved before 30 November 2006)

Disclosure: I hold this share and/or this derivative. This recommendation is to be acted upon at your own risk and volition and I do not undertake any responsibility for the outcome of anyone's trade who acts on this recommendation

Previous Best Buy

READ MY OTHER BLOGS
Tulip Mania
Crystal Gazing the Indian stock markets
The FOUNTAIN HEAD that will open your mind
Benefits of being from Mars
Don't QUIT
Goat and Ganguly
Fifty ways to manage time
A bit of humour
Have you seen my other blog?
www.indianstockmonitor.com


Have you seen my other blog?

18 October 2006

Best buy Oct 18 2006

BEST BUY RECOMMENDATION

(Note: The shares recommended here are purely from my personal analysis as a hobby and I do not take any responsibility for the outcome of the decisions of the user based on my recommendations)

Recommendation for 18 October 2006

Buy Deccan Aviation above Rs.114. Current Market price is Rs.108/90.

Targets Rs.152 & Rs.174 (Holding period 1 to 3 months)

Disclosure: I do not hold these shares or their derivatives.

Previous Best Buy

READ MY OTHER BLOGS
Tulip Mania
Crystal Gazing the Indian stock markets
The FOUNTAIN HEAD that will open your mind
Benefits of being from Mars
Don't QUIT
Goat and Ganguly
Fifty ways to manage time
A bit of humour
Have you seen my other blog?

ADVERTORIAL

IF YOU NEED PROFESSIONAL STOCK MARKET ADVICE AND CONSISTENTLY PERFORMING STOCK PICKS - READ ON

GET ISM DIWALI MUHURAT PICK+TOP 10 MODEL PORTFOLIO FOR FREE...

Dear Investor,

In the stock market, if you go without advice, it's like treading in the dark without lights!

The market is full of chaos, confusions!

The market that you get in for instant riches can make you double instant poor!

You have heard all 'bhashans' on how to make money in the markets and have subscribed to 'free services', taken 'free advises' on groups, emails, chats.

Intelligent investors, who make tons of money in the market, know that free calls only lead to free falls .

But, there is one way you can move ahead, move uphill with ease!

GET PROFITABILITY AT HIGH PROBABILITY

Embrace Indian Stock Monitor (ISM)

We clear confusions and provide solutions!!!

Best rewards in stock markets accrue to those who identify the right stock(s) and invest in early stages of growth. They spot the winners much ahead of the average Joe.

We have a track record that speaks for itself.

We make no empty claims; our success is umpteen!!!

Peep into our history and you will find that inviting Goddess Lakshmi home is easy with our:

Diwali Muhurat Picks
Top Ten Model Portfolio

PRODUCT INFORMATION

Muhurat pick is a most sought after product and is the secret key for being successful at high probability.

The ISM MUHURAT PICK+TOP 10 MODEL PORTFOLIO, released on every Diwali, has delivered above 100% returns to investors consistently, time in and time out, year-after-year – we fail with words to describe our success but are successful in our picks.

Can the simple word success bring out the returns achieved on Financial Technologies picked at Rs. 18 (2050 high), UTI Bank picked at Rs.75 (375 high), Adlabs picked at 100 (450 high), and Emami at Rs.115 (320 high).

Track Record: http://www.indianstockmonitor.com/ism10-sample.htm

You too can benefit – You too can be a winner in the market!!!

Grab the opportunity knocking your door!! Let Goddess Lakshmi in!!!

How nice it will be to share your success stories at the market with your friends ? Enjoy that with your family? Spend for that holiday ? Pay early your home and personal loans ?

If you are not an annual subscriber, Extend/Renew your subscription to ISMiNVEST for one year and get this fabulous product absolutely FREE!!!

ISM MUHURAT PICK+TOP 10 MODEL PORTFOLIO Samvat 2063 to be released this Diwali.

It's an EXCLUSIVE OFFER – only for existing subscribers! Provided, of course, you like exclusivity (who doesn't?).

Our investment lights will focus on your success at the markets!!! Light up your Diwali, the festival of lights, the victory of good over evil – get Diwali Picks and get successful.

Just Rs. 11 per day!

And Goddess Lakshmi is already smiling at you! This fabulous and exclusive product comes to you for just Rs. 5000 per annum – pinch yourself, if you find it unbelievable!!!

It's a dream offer!!! It will bring your dreams into reality.

And what's more? We have made this offer even more special. SUBSCRIBE BEFORE OCTOBER 31, 2006 AND GET A DISCOUNT OF 20%. THIS MEANS YOU NEED TO PAY US ONLY Rs. 4000 for annual subscription INSTEAD OF Rs. 5000 and get the following services…

*ISMiNVEST
*TRADING ALERTs
*DIWALI MUHURAT PICK+TOP 10 MODEL PORTFOLIO

This translates to just 333 rupees per month or around 12 rupees per day. You must be paying your broker much more than that as transaction charges. Our service charges are the among the lowest in the industry and through Trading Alerts alone, you take home more than what you pay us besides more than doubling your money through ISMiNVEST & Muhurat Pick+Top 10 Model Portfolio.

A TOTAL VALUE-FOR-MONEYDEAL!

INTERESTED?

You may send us payment by cheque/DD or pay by bank/Net transfer.

As soon as your payment of Rs. 4000 is cleared, we will extend your subscription account for ISMiNVEST and Trading Alerts for a year, and also send you Muhurat Pick+Top 10 Model Portfolio on Laxmi Puja day.

MAKE A NEW BEGINNING THIS DIWALI!

Regards,
Team ISM
Profitability@High Probability!

24 September 2006

Whats in a name?

A lot in a name, BY RAMACHANDRA GUHA


A look at a few fascinating stories linked to some cricketers' names...




In a select group: Pataudi (second from right) with the national selection committee members at the Madras Cricket Club (MCC), 1964.

WHEN Mohammed Yousuf is at the wicket, I often stop by the TV and watch, for he is one of the most graceful batsmen now playing. I thus caught snatches of the three long hundreds he scored against England earlier this summer, in the course of which at least two commentators referred to him as "Yousuf Yohana". The error was human, for, he had indeed played for many years under that name.

Different impulses

Before Yohana converted to Islam, a man from Madras (as it was then known) was the only cricketer to have played Test cricket under two religious affiliations. This was A.G. Kripal Singh, who made his debut for India in the mid 1950s as a bearded, turbaned Sardar and returned to the Test team some years later as a clean-shaven Christian. Where the Pakistani changed faith owing to the influence of his team-mate Saeed Anwar, the Indian had a more personal reason — it was in order to marry the woman he loved. Yousuf's name change is visible in the record books, although sometimes missed by the commentators. Did the other fellow also change his name? The scorecards suggest he did not, for, before and after his conversion to Christianity, he played under the name of "A.G. Kripal Singh". However, a Madras cricketer I know, and who was a contemporary of Kripal's, claims that while he did not change his initials, he did change what they stood for, "Amritsar Gurugobind" becoming "Arnold George".

More than two thousand men have played Test cricket. Yousuf and Kripal remain the only two to have played while practising two different faiths. Some others have changed or modified their names while retaining their commitment to their ancestral religion. These include at least three other Pakistanis. That country's first captain was Abdul Hafeez Kardar who, before Partition, had played for India on the 1946 tour of England under the name, simply, of "Abdul Hafeez".

Then there was Asif Iqbal who, before he migrated to Pakistan in the early 1960s, had appeared for Osmania University under the name of "A.I. Rizvi". (Years ago, I came across a clipping from The Hindu, which described a dashing hundred he made under that name and for that team at the old Marina ground in Madras.) Then there was Asif's close contemporary Majid Jehangir, who made his debut for Pakistan as a fast bowler, and later became an opening batsman while adding the surname "Khan".

The cynical view — which I do not share — is that Yousuf Yohana changed his faith only so that he could captain his country's cricket team. Oddly enough, Kardar, Asif and Majid all went on to captain Pakistan after changing their names. It is unlikely that Mohammed Yousuf is aware of this, for, modern cricketers do not usually know much about the players of the past. However, it is an augury from which his supporters and admirers can take heart.

Unique achievement

At least one Indian captain also changed his name. This was Mansur Ali Khan, who became the Nawab of Pataudi when not yet in his teens, owing to the early death of his father. The senior Nawab of Pataudi was in a very select list of Test cricketers — of those who had played for more than one country. An orthodox, careful, batsman, he had appeared for England in the 1930s, and went on to captain India in the 1940s.

At the crease the son was rather more of a dasher. He broke his father's record for the most runs made in an Oxford season, then lost an eye in a road accident. He was still good enough to be chosen to play for India in 1961. This he did, under the name of "Nawab of Pataudi, junior". The next year, he was unexpectedly elevated to the captaincy, when Nari Contractor was felled by a blow to the head from Charlie Griffith. This brought him into yet another select list — of fathers and sons who have led their countries in Test cricket.

Where Iftikhar Ali had only one series as captain of India, his son Mansur Ali stayed in the job for the better part of a decade. In 1971, he suffered a double demotion. In January of that year, he was replaced as captain of India by Ajit Wadekar; in December, he had his title taken away from him by the Parliament of India. To his credit, he fought his way back into the Test team and, in time, came to captain his country again. However, his last appearances were not as "Nawab of Pataudi, junior", but as plain "M.A.K. Pataudi".

Dylan and cricket

If Pataudi's was the most democratic name change undergone by a cricketer, surely the most charming was that effected by the England fast bowler Bob Willis. He made his first-class debut with the two Christian names his parents gave him. Then he spent a winter following Bob Dylan around the west coast of America. After he returned to England, and cricket, he changed his name by deed-poll to "Robert George Dylan Willis". As it happens, Dylan is my favourite folk singer too. If I have not added his name to mine, it may only be because I never had a hope in hell of playing Test cricket for my country.


Courtesy: http://www.hindu.com/mag/2006/09/24/stories/2006092400190300.htm
Have you seen my other blog?

21 September 2006

Do you really need an iPOD or the Zune?

Do you really need an iPod or the latest attempt at extending monopoly by Microsoft - Zune? It all depends on the utility value you see rather than what features these handheld portable music/ video devices offer.

Read on this nice article by ZDNet's Matthew Miller, that I came across today.

Since the latest Apple iPod and Microsoft Zune announcements I have been trying to think of a way to take video and audio content with me on the go for viewing and listening to while commuting in the vanpool and traveling for business. I almost pulled the trigger on an 80GB iPod and then gave serious thought to the Zune and then yesterday almost went to my local Apple store to get the iPod. However, last night while recording the next MobileTechRoundup podcast Kevin and James asked why I would want to watch video on such a small screen and why not just use the Samsung Q1 UMPC for multimedia. I have actually been using the Q1 for video content on airplane trips and so their statements got me thinking about my desires and available resources just a bit more.

My first consideration is where and when do people plan on and actually view video on a device like an iPod or Zune? I personally commute in a vanpool or bus one hour each way to work so I have the opportunity to view video at that time. I also travel for business a few days a month and have some time on the plane to watch content. However, if I am home then I prefer to watch high definition TV in our rec room. Are there that many people using public transportation where they can watch video content? Are people watching videos while standing in lines, at their homes, or when hanging with their friends? How many hours a week or month do people watch videos on a small screen? Are these devices being used primarily for audio content like music and podcasts?

I think the answer to these questions helps determine how portable the device really has to be for video consumption. I have loaded lots of content on my mobile devices, but watching video is done more to show people what can be done rather than what I actually do on a regular basis. Before picking up the Samsung Q1 I was using my PSP for video content on the airplane because it had a larger display for a more enjoyable viewing experience. Is video content really that enjoyable on a 2 inch iPod display?

My next consideration was how could I obtain video content? There are programs that let you rip a DVD for personal viewing that work well and can be played back on lots of different devices. There are also download services like the new iTunes Movies, CinemaNow, Amazon Unboxing, etc. However, the service you use will dictate what type of device you can use, i.e. iTunes Movies only work on iPods. I have also used a Neuros Recorder 2 to get analog content on devices so there are plenty of options available that work on a number of devices.Now that we see that video content is fairly easy to obtain, how can we collect audio content? You can rip your personal CDs, purchase music online from several online vendors, subscribe to an online service, and download podcasts for free. I only have a handful of CDs in my personal collection and as a result I am more interested in how to get audio content online.

My wife uses iTunes to buy all her music for her Nano at 99 cents per song, but I wanted to try more than just a few songs and didn't want to shell out hundreds for music right now. I then decided to try the online subscription service and am using Virgin to start off with since they have one of the largest online collections and their US$14.99 monthly fee allows you to listen on a PC or a mobile device that supports Plays For Sure. I have to admit that after just a few hours of downloading and listening I can see how these subscription services are the way to go for people like me who want to try new things and want fresh content and think Apple is really missing something here by not having this functionality. I also think Microsoft is making a mistake by not having the Zune be a Plays For Sure device and shutting out all these companies that have been supporting these MP3 players. I am not sure how many people will embrace the Zune with it's own separate service and store.So as you can see there are lots of ways to get video and audio content on a device. However, as you can also see the methods you choose can drive what device you can use. Is there a way to get it all without being limited? I thought about this a bit more and came up with what I think is the answer to my dilemma. Use a UMPC device! With my Samsung Q1 UMPC I have iTunes and Virgin's media application loaded up and have purchased TV shows on iTunes and subscription music on Virgin with podcasts coming in from iTunes (including video podcasts that sometimes have issues playing on some devices). Video is awesome with the larger 7 inch display, audio rocks with the stereo speakers or use of headphones, and I have something like 30GB of storage capacity. Another couple of benefits are that I can use stereo Bluetooth headphones for wireless enjoyment (where is Bluetooth on the iPod or Zune?), I can download content via WiFi, I can backup my content using a USB drive, and I can even do all my work on the go with a full Tablet PC and music playing in the background.

Now while the UMPC allows me to consume and enjoy video and audio content without any restrictions and with a more enjoyable viewing size, there are a couple of cons. The battery life of the current UMPC devices is rather short at about 2.5 to 3 hours of continuous play (I use a Battery Geek Portable Power Station when I travel), the device isn't as portable as an iPod or Zune, and the media button interface isn't there on a UMPC. However, for me personally I think the pros of unlimited content choices, larger display, and Bluetooth headset support outweigh these issues. I am actually now looking at a way to take along subscription audio content to the gym in a device that focuses on audio playback to act as a companion to my Q1. It looks like I'll be spending my money on videos and subscription services and skipping the iPod and Zune hardware for now.

Have you seen my other blog?

24 August 2006

Let your selfishness help others

Think Indian, Think!!!

This has been written by our President Mr.APJ abdul kalam plz read this mail once and think about it if u r reallly an indian!!!!!!

I was in Hyderabad giving this lecture, when a 14 year old girl asked me for my autograph. I asked her what her goal in life is.

She replied: I want to live in a developed India .

For her, you and I will have to build this developed India . You must proclaim. India is not an under-developed nation; it is a highly developed nation.

Do you have 10 minutes? Allow me to come back with a vengeance.

Got 10 minutes for your country? If yes, then read; otherwise, choice is yours.

YOU say that our government is inefficient.

YOU say that our laws are too old.

YOU say that the municipality does not pick up the garbage.

YOU say that the phones don't work, the railways are a joke,

The airline is the worst in the world, mails never reach their destination.

You say that our country has been fed to the dogs and is the absolute pits.

YOU say, say and say.

What do YOU do about it?

Take a person on his way to Singapore.

Give him a name?

YOURS.

Give him a face?

YOURS.

YOU walk out of the airport and you are at your International best.

In Singapore you don't throw cigarette butts on the roads or eat in the stores.

YOU are as proud of their Underground Links as they are.

You pay $5 (approx. Rs.60) to drive through Orchard Road (equivalent of Mahim Causeway or Pedder Road) between 5 PM and 8 PM.

YOU comeback to the parking lot to punch your parking ticket if you have over-stayed, identity.

In Singapore you don't say anything, DO YOU?

YOU wouldn't dare to eat in public during Ramadan, in Dubai.

YOU would not dare to go out without your head covered in Jeddah.

YOU would not dare to buy an employee of the telephone exchange in London at 10 pounds (Rs.650) a month to, "see to it that my STD and ISD calls are billed to someone else."

YOU would not dare to speed beyond 55 mph (88 km/h) in Washington and then tell the traffic cop, "Jaanta hai main kaun hoon (Do you know who I am?). I am so and so's son. Take your two bucks and get lost."

YOU wouldn't chuck an empty coconut shell anywhere other than the garbage pail on the beaches in Australia and New Zealand.

Why don't YOU spit Paan on the streets of Tokyo?

Why don't YOU use examination jockeys or buy fake certificates in
Boston ?????

We are still talking of the same YOU.

YOU who can respect and conform to a foreign system in other countries but cannot in your own. You who will thro w papers and cigarettes on the road the moment you touch Indian ground.

If you can be an involved and appreciative citizen in an alien country, why cannot you be the same here in India?

Once in an interview, the famous Ex-municipal Commissioner of Bombay, Mr.Tinaikar, had a point to make.

"Rich people"s dogs are walked on the streets to leave their affluent droppings all over the place," he said. "And then the same people turn around to criticize and blame the authorities for inefficiency and dirty pavements. What do they expect the officers to do? Go down with a broom every time their dog feels the pressure in his bowels?

In America every dog owner has to clean up after his pet has done the job. Same in Japan . Will the Indian citizen do that here?"

He's right.

We go to the polls to choose a government and after that forfeit all responsibility.

We sit back wanting to be pampered and expect the government to do everything for us whilst our contribution is totally negative. We expect the government to clean up but we are not going to stop chucking garbage all over the place nor are we going to stop to pick a up a stray piece of paper and throw it in the bin.

We expect the railways to provide clean bathrooms but we are not going to learn the proper use of bathrooms.

We want Indian Airlines and Air India to provide the best of food and toiletries but we are not going to stop pilfering at the least opportunity.

This applies even to the staff who is known not to pass on the service to the public.

When it comes to burning social issues like those related to women, dowry, girl child and others, we make loud drawing room protestations and continue to do the reverse at home. Our excuse?

"It's the whole system which has to change, how will it matter if I alone forego my son's rights to a dowry."

So who's going to change the system? What does a system consist of? Very conveniently for us it consists of our neighbours, other households, other cities, other communities and the government.

But definitely not me and YOU.

When it comes to us actually making a positive contribution to the system we lock ourselves along with our families into a safe cocoon and look into the distance at countries far away and wait for a Mr. Clean to come along & work miracles for us with a majestic sweep of his hand or we leave the country and run away.

Like lazy cowards hounded by our fears we run to America to bask in their glory and praise their system.

When New York becomes insecure we run to England .

When England experiences unemployment, we take the next flight out to the Gulf.

When the Gulf is war struck, we demand to be rescued and brought home by the Indian government.

Everybody is out to abuse and rape the country.

Nobody thinks of feeding the system.

Our conscience is mortgaged to money.

Dear Indians, the article is highly thought inductive, calls for a great deal of introspection and pricks one's conscience too?..

I am echoing J.F. Kennedy's words to his fellow American to relate to Indians?.

"ASK WHAT WE CAN DO FOR INDIA AND DO WHAT HAS TO BE DONE TO MAKE INDIA WHAT AMERICA AND OTHER WESTERN COUNTRIES ARE TODAY "

Lets do what India needs from us.

Send this page to all your friends

Thank You,
Dr. Abdul Kalaam

P.S.: I don't know if this is a real mail of our Hon'ble President or a faked one. But, it does have lot of things to ponder! Do forward it. Even if one percent of who receives this change, you would have taken some action in the direction of making our country a better place to live for us and our children. Atleast for once, let our selfishness help others.

Have you seen my other blog?

20 August 2006

We are still coming to terms

Last year, this day, at this hour, he was alive. Performing religious rituals and planning the day ahead for finalising the right girl for my youngest brother

On the night of that day, he breathed his last, leaving all of us in a state of shock. I was there with him just about 40 days before and seen him in his elements.

He had sent me an email chronicling the happenings of the day (20 August 2005) at 10.30 pm on that day. And had completed it with the words that "God will take care of everything". Was he aware of what was coming to him?

Not everyone is blessed to leave this world with least pains. Our dear dad got it. He was alive and active at 10.30 pm and became history by 10.50 pm.

But he remains alive in our thoughts just like the smell of soap that stays in your hand even after the soap had fallen into the sea and washed away.
















Our father didn't tell us how to live; he lived, and let us watch him do it.

Have you seen my other blog?

18 August 2006

Monkey Game

Once upon a time in a village a man appeared who announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for Rs. 10. The villagers seeing that there were many monkeys went out in the forest and started catching them. The man bought thousands at 10 and as supply started to diminish and villagers started to stop their effort he announced that now he would buy at 20 rupees.

This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching moneys again. Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The offer rate increased to 25 and the supply of monkeys became so that it was an effort to even see a monkey let alone catch it.

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at 50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business his assistant would now buy on behalf of the man.

In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers, "Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at 35 and when the man comes back you can sell it to him for 50."

The villagers queued up with all their saving to buy the monkeys.

After that?

The man or his assistant were not to be found.

The villagers had lots of monkeys to take care of.

In the back drop of the above see the price chart and the financials of a company below.















Is the monkey game on? (Look at the steep increase in price and the name of the company. Isn't it crazy?)

See the fundamentals of this stock here

What is the regulator and the surveilance mechanism doing?

Have you seen my other blog?

15 August 2006

Keep porting your data to new storage

Let your cherished moments not get wiped out by technology

Few years back, in one of the in-flight magazines, I read an interesting article about how to keep one's data accessible all the time.

You may have the data recorded in tapes, floppies CDs, DVDs, thumb drives - you name it. When I say data, I mean all types of data - plain information or music files or photos or your savoured moments captured in video, whatever.

Though the media in which you keep them may last long, the hardware that you use to create them or access may get outdated.

I have lots floppies - this generation may not even know they existed - of the five and a quarter inch variety with data in them. Well secured and in usable condition. Only problem is you no longer find a computer that can read a five and a quarter floppy disc.

Same is happening now to the three and half inch floppy drives. Computers have started coming without these as people are more comfortable using thumb drives instead of floppies. My new laptop has no floppy drive.

Video tapes will soon go away. Already we have in the market DVD recorders that can directly record programs to DVDs.

If you have been using a video camera and had no habit of converting those videos into CDs or tapes playable on VCRs, you might have already lost all those recorded moments as the bigger video tapes used in old day cameras have been replaced by cameras that directly record into DVDs or into smaller DVB cassettes.

So, if you want to preserve your data and lifes interesting frozen/moving moments, better keep transferring those into latest storage media. This applies to both official and personal data.

When do you shift the data from one media to another? It is best to change when one hardware technology is being replaced by another. For example, we are now seeing the three and half inch floppy drive is getting outdated. At this point, we do have quite a lot of comptuers still having that drive while also having USB ports/ CD/DVD drives. So, you will have a chance to convert the data in one media to another with least hassles. If you wait any longer (may be another year) you may not have any computer in working condition that will be able to read your three and half inch floppy disc for you.

I thought these problems only exist with poor souls like us. But, a recent article showed that not only the general public but also such big organisations like NASA are way behind in data porting and have failed to keep up with the technology. Read the story below.

One giant blip for mankind as moon landing tapes are mislaid
Dan Glaister in Los AngelesTuesday
August 15, 2006
The Guardian

Houston, we have a problem. The Apollo 11 moon landings were one of the defining moments of the 20th century. In 1969 an estimated 600m people watched the grainy black-and-white images of Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin taking "one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind" as they became the first men to set foot on the surface of the moon.

But now the original recordings of those moments have been mislaid. The poor quality images broadcast on television at the time were video recordings of the original film. Shot at 10 frames a second, the original is much clearer and is thought to include details that are not discernible on the television recordings

The grainy television recordings have buoyed the many theories that suggest the moon landings never took place, and were instead a cold war propaganda ploy. Critics point to the lack of stars in the broadcast images of the night sky, as well as the multiple shadows - suggesting, they argue, a second light source, such as a spotlight - and the fluttering of the US flag on the breezeless moon.

"The conspiracy theorists have been with us since day one on this," said a Nasa spokesman. "We hope that when we go back to the moon again they'll finally believe us."
The original tapes of the moon landings were shot from a camera mounted on top of the Eagle lunar lander. These were sent back to three tracking stations, two in Australia and one in California. After being converted to the 60 frames a second used for television broadcast, they were sent by analogue signal to Houston for broadcast, further degrading the image quality.
A year after the landings, the original film was copied on to magnetic tape and delivered to Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Centre in Greenbelt, Maryland. All but two of the 700 boxes of magnetic tapes are now missing.

"I would simply like to clarify that the tapes are not lost as such," John Sarkissian of the Parkes Observatory in Australia, who has been involved in the search for the tapes, told the website space.com. "We are confident that they are stored at Goddard ... we just don't know where precisely."

The data evaluation lab at Goddard is the only known place to have the equipment and expertise to play back the tapes, according to Mr Sarkissian, but the lab is scheduled for closure in October. Even if the lab's equipment is saved, the tapes may be of little use. "They are so old and fragile, it's not certain they could even be played," said the Nasa spokesman.

Have you read my other blog?

27 July 2006

Soft Advice?!

Three Steps to a New, Improved Microsoft!
Parting advice for Bill Gates.
Stephen Manes


From the September 2006 issue of PC World magazinePosted Wednesday, July 26, 2006
On June 15, in case you didn't notice, Microsoft announced that Bill Gates will "transition out of a day-to-day role in the company" in 2008, though he'll remain as chairman. Bill, no one can complain about your new focus on philanthropy, but over the next two years, how about showing your customers a little love?

It'll be easy! Just insist that Microsoft adopt this mantra: "Stop Making Crap." Here's a simple three-step process:

1. Quit kidding yourself. Do some soul-searching and publicly disown the longstanding public-relations fantasy that Microsoft has something to do with "innovation." Your business has always been about taking others' ideas and selling them with a Microsoft badge. Period. After CP/M came DOS; after Mac came Windows; after Palm came Pocket PC; after Netscape came IE. And those are just the most obvious examples.

2. Insist on quality and security. Microsoft ads say "Your potential. Our passion," but the real motto should be "Do the Minimum." Whenever I pick up a Microsoft product, I expect stupid or dysfunctional design. You rarely disappoint me.

Quality? In just the last few weeks, I've encountered a show-stopping defect in ActiveSync, Windows Mobile dialog boxes that are unreadable because nobody redesigned them for the aspect ratio of the Motorola Q phone's screen, and an entire platform--Ultra-Mobile PC--that's one of the worst computing experiences ever, right down to a Tablet PC tutorial no one bothered to update for the new devices. Windows Media-based audio players continually fail to challenge Apple's iPod because Microsoft's software sucks.

Security? A continuing bad joke, right down to the Windows Genuine Advantage antipiracy program that Windows Update dubs a "critical security update." It's critical only to the company's profit margins, by ensuring that users are running a legit version of Windows--except, as sometimes happens, when it's wrong.

Oh, and quit bragging about how many testers you have. It's tiresome and irrelevant when most of them appear to be taking a permanent lunch break. Embrace the idea that quality and security have to be built in, not tested in.

3. Shake up the talent. Nobody in a position of authority at Microsoft ever seems to get fired. Many should be. How many times can a product jettison features and miss deadlines before its handlers get the boot? How many security flaws can pop up before their creators walk the plank?

And if you want to innovate, find innovators. CEO Steve Ballmer is a longtime apologist for whatever Microsoft is doing at the moment. The résumé of new Chief Research and Strategy Officer Craig Mundie includes the disappointing Windows CE operating system, the voice-recognition-now-and-then-enabled AutoPC, and Web TV, plus the laughable Trustworthy Computing Initiative. New Chief Software Architect Ray Ozzie is a smart guy and by all accounts a brilliant programmer, but his crowning achievement to date is Lotus Notes, a product whose user interface is despised by the folks I know who have been forced to use it. Is all the hot blood working on Xbox?

Oh, and after the three-step process, here's step 4: Turn "Stop Making Crap" into "Start Making Wonders." But software has to run, not crash, before it can fly.

Have you seen my other blog?

20 July 2006

A memorable day in my career

Till 4.30 pm on Tuesday 18 July 2006, it was just another day in my life and then, in our office there was a short meeting called by our top management who broke the news that our Board had accepted a proposal to admit Bank Muscat International as a shareholder of our Company with 40% stake.

So the day which started normal grew into a great and memorable one by evening.

The news means we are on way to take a leadership position in the market place with much more ammunition to compete for increased success.

Pleased post the news as it appeared in Oman Observer (http://omanobserver.com) below.



Business news
BankMuscat Intl plans to take 40pc stake in National Finance
By A E James
MUSCAT — The board of National Finance Company has accepted a proposal from BankMuscat International (BMI) to acquire a strategic 40 per cent stake in the company. As per the understanding, National Finance will issue 4.83 million additional shares at a price of RO 1.850 per share to the Bahrain-based BMI through a private placement route. “The board has approved the proposal in view of BankMuscat International's standing in the region. It will help the company to generate additional business,” said Robert Pancras, General Manager of National Finance.

“The proceeds of the issue will be used for expanding our business,” he added. Pancras said with the issue of additional shares, the paid up capital of the company would go up to RO 12 million from RO 7.2 million now. The additional capital will also help the company to comply with the stipulation of the central bank to raise paid up capital to RO 10 million within three years. “This will help us to raise the paid up capital much before the three year period,” he added.

But Pancras said that the proposal is subject to the approval from regulating authorities and shareholders of his company. If everything goes well, BMI's representation in NFC's board will be proportional to its shareholding in NFC. On the financial performance, he said the company has a strong relation with local customers, especially in automobile and small and medium enterprise (SME) segments. BMI, whose 49 per cent stake is held by Muscat-based BankMuscat, will invest RO 8.94 million to become a strategic stakeholder of National Finance. Shares allotted to BMI will be locked in for a period of three years.


Have you seen my other blog?

01 July 2006

Best Buy July 03 2006

BEST BUY RECOMMENDATION

(Note: The shares recommended here are purely from my personal analysis as a hobby and I do not take any responsibility for the outcome of the decisions of the user based on my recommendations)

Recommendation for 03/07/2006

Buy Adani Exports. Current Market price is Rs.130 in cash. Buy more aggressively once it crosses Rs.135 decisively.

Targets Rs.238 & Rs.265 (Holding period 1 to 3 months)

Disclosure: I do not hold these shares or their derivatives.

Previous Best Buy


READ MY OTHER BLOGS
Tulip Mania
Crystal Gazing the Indian stock markets
The FOUNTAIN HEAD that will open your mind
Benefits of being from Mars
Don't QUIT
Goat and Ganguly
Fifty ways to manage time

A bit of humour
Have you seen my other blog?

20 June 2006

Note these numbers of note

2.5 million: The number of barrels (a barrel is 159 litres) of oil India consumes every day. The US burns 10 times this amount

30 per cent: The growth recorded by the PC market in India in 2005-06 compared to the previous year. HP retained the top slot with total market share of 18 per cent, followed by HCL at 14 per cent, and Lenovo at 9 per cent in terms of unit shipments

48: Number of airports China is planning to open over the next five years. With passenger numbers forecast to grow 14 per cent annually, Beijing plans to spend $17.5 billion on airports by
2010. It is also planning to increase this number further to 220 by 2020

1 billion: The number of songs sold by Apple Computer through the iTunes Music Store thus far throughout Europe as well as in the US, Canada, Australia and Japan

£228 million (Rs 1,778.4 crore): The amount Indian companies spent buying eight British businesses last year, including the £80 million acquisition of Premier Foods' Typhoo tea brand by Apeejay International

$224 million (Rs 1,008 crore): The amount raked in by The Da Vinci Code in its worldwide opening, the second-biggest debut ever at the global box office, behind the $253 million tally for "Star Wars: Episode III-Revenge of the Sith"

$3.54 million (Rs 15.93 crore): The amount paid by an anonymous bidder for 'The Hammer', a Stradivarius violin made in 1707, at Christie's in New York recently, making it the most expensive musical instrument ever sold at an auction

69.3 points: The value of CII's business confidence index for April-September 2006, up from the September-March 2005-06 level of 67.2 points. A score above 50 indicates "positive confidence" while a score above 75 indicates "strong positive confidence"

$5.5 billion (Rs 24,750 crore): Annual remittances from 3.5 million Keralites who work abroad. Eighty-five per cent of them are settled in West Asia

Rs 19,990: The price of the XBox360 Core, which will be launched in India in October

Rs. Can't quantify: The amount depositors have lost while investing for higher returns in shares, mutual funds, fixed deposits of finance companies and chit funds

Crystal Gaze the Indian Stock Markets
Bit of Humour - Southern Style
Have you seen my other blog?

19 June 2006

Crystal gazing the Indian stock markets

Indian stock market is currently in the classic..."kill the bull, trap the bear" phase. Values of many stocks have come down 50-75+% from May 1, 2006. Such a fall in a matter of about a month is unprecedented and various reasons suggest that it is an orchestered fall. Such a game is played to make the weak exit and the strong enter. Stocks have changed hands for sure. Hence lends more credence to the fact that bottom is somewhere near.

Ok, at such times, we lose rationality due to panic/fear but to think of it...money is a mind game not emotional or psychological. What is a share...it is after all a part ownership of the company. And if a company worth Rs100 crore is available at Rs20 crore...how long can panic withhold genuine investors, who know that ups and downs are part of market and market never dies. Suppose if BHEL is made available to you at Rs80...then won't you be inclined to sell your house and buy as much as you want as you know for sure that in the next cycle of bulls, you are sure to at least sell at 200+, when rationality returns. Then maybe you can move to a bigger better house.
Well, the operator knows that and therefore he never brings down prices to that level wherein fear fades out and people are willing to take increased bets. It’s like jumping from first floor of a building for a prize...out of 100 people, 90 may agree. From third floor, maybe 20-25 may agree (factoring in a fracture or two) and from fifth floor...maybe 1-2 may undertake suicidal attempt. Values are down to Sensex 5000 levels in many cases and match prices prevailing in 2003. Well, in some cases, to levels when Sensex was sub-3000.
Let us tell you the case of Mansukh bhai. When his favourite stock was Rs100. He had clever information that it will come down to 50 and so he waited patiently to buy. Luck favoured him and price did come down to 50 as Sensex plummeted from 12674 to sub-9000. But at that time there was panic all over and sentiment was bruised. There were talks of 6000-7000 in Sensex very soon.
Greed got better of him and he immediately lowered his buy target to Rs30. So money lying idle
waiting to be deployed got pushed further down. The stock reacted from 50 to 62...Mansukh thought it was a technical reaction and how true he was...the stock again tumbled to 46 and Mansukh was cheerful that now his price of Rs30 was but within reach. He had dreams of selling the stock again at a future point of time at 100+ (Note he was sure that 100+ will be back again at a point of time). But from 46, market again bounced and the stock made it to 58 before tumbling again to 50. Mansukh bhai was sure that his (un)reliable sources cannot be wrong and market has to go to 6000 and hence price of 30 has to come. So he still did not deploy the money. The stock then rose to 68 from 50 in a matter of 15 days. Mansukh bhai got a little tensed and put some money at 68 but at that point profit booking came and stock tumbled back to 58 where mansukh bhai sold off at a loss, again feeling that 30 was coming. But in another 10 days stock was 75 again and Mansukh had no idea what to do. From 50 to 75, 50% gain and just because of his oversmartness and lack of discipline coupled with fear and greed, he let opportunity slip out of his hand and now he was suffering a mental block to buy at 75+.
Moral: Money could not be deployed at lower levels though the most popular school of thought says, "buy low sell high".

OR waiting for the elusive bottom. As explained above, at a certain price, demand overtakes supply and prices therefore rise. Every share has an intrinsic value and you cannot keep investors forever at bay. Sentiment changes in favour in no time hence the best time to buy is when everybody is selling. Time tested theory. Bears make bargain hunting possible and at a point of time all bears turn to bull.
Veena behn, a widow, had invested Rs70,000 of her hard earnings in the same stock at 104 in March as her nephew was a fund manager and he had informed her that within a year the stock would cross 250+ as some corporate development was expected and net profit was expected to improve sharply. In good faith, Veena invested but in three months flat, she saw price tumbling to 85, 75, 60, 52, 46...at every fall she would call the nephew and ask what to do...she at times cursed him also. The nephew knew what was going on in the market and that things would be normal in a few months and asked her to hold on with patience.
But she was not in peace and was having sleepless nights as her Gujarati neighbours constantly kept talking of Rs30 for her stock and how market was in a bear phase. Fear of further downfall was in her mind and like everyone else...she wanted her stock 1) to fly immediately after buying and 2) never go down below the buy price. It’s like asking for too much, isn't it?
But she knew that she had to believe in her nephew more than anybody else and when in next 4-6 months prices climbed back to 104, she sold off without asking the nephew thinking "saved" without understanding the ploy that getting to exit at buy price means that stock is headed higher. And she will never buy again even at 125.
Lalwani was smarter. He had bought the same stock at 100 but he did not expect a correction more than 75. However, when stock breached 75 and was at 52, he broke his fixed deposit and bought more quantity. His logic was when he saw value at 100, then why should he lose opportunity at 50. He was willing to wait with faith and patience. He had done his homework and was sure company fundamentals were poised to take it to 150-200+ in 1-2 years and for a 200-300% returns in such uncertain times...the risk was worth it (after all, equity means risk).
He was sure...aakhir free mien to stock nahi dega market and bottom has to be somewhere. Even if at 30, he was willing to wait. Today, in less than 2 months of turmoil, his stock is trading at his average price and all agonies have been buried. In 8 months, he sold the stock at 160. Smile back on the face.
But Govindji was unlucky...he got panicky and sold his stock bought at 85 at 48 as he wanted to benefit from the fall and buy back at 30. He forgot that market was smarter. Finally, he had 2 choices, either to buy back at 75 or let go the stock. As human psychology is, he did not have the courage to buy and was cursing himself for acting on unreliable information and impulse.
We had earlier sent the price history of Fortune Info showing how a stock jumps from 22 to 52, tumbles down to 25 again and shoots to 113. All within 3 months. Similarly of Tyche Peripherals, how after buy reports, it fell from 26 to 8 and then jumped to 52...just in 3 months. History has many such evidences in store.

What you should understand from the above is that...
-->If you have the money, buy on declines with a 1-2 year horizon and you may well get 100-200% returns. Avoid fear and greed and start buying in phases. Do not wait for the elusive bottom.
-->If you are stuck up at higher levels and the stock is strong fundamentally, hold on to the stock with faith and patience. Not only your cost price will come back but profit will also be made. Do not trade on your investment. And for God's sake, do not sell and exit the market...that is what operators want.
If possible, arrange for some more money and average lower or enter some new stock to take advantage when market bounces back.
*There is nothing wrong with the markets and bull run is definitely not over. Maybe the bottom has been made or maybe it is yet to be made. But by June-July, this mayhem will end for sure as you cannot keep a spring down for long. Powerful people who have lost out will come back with a vengeance...remember you are least affected because of your limited investment size (very small stake as compared to them) and these people have the power and lobby to turn the markets. And they will. They will rescue you to rescue themselves.
We expect 11000 to be tested once by July and 12500-13000 anytime from August to October and 16000+ anytime between December-March. Buy with these levels in mind. Even if things do not move as fast as expected...16000 is very much likely latest by December 2007. At this level, your cost+profit is guaranteed.
Further, the correction has removed many excesses from the system, weak players have exited and expectations have come down. Now people are worried about saving capital...a month back they wanted 10-15% gains every 2 days whereas prudent investment philosophy says to expect 15-20% annual returns from stock market. However, many a trader have paid price for their greed and understand now why people work hard to make a living and not enjoy life by playing the markets. It was never easy and it is never going to be. A strategic and informed decision followed by a disciplined execution can alone make you laugh your way to the bank.
For the market to go back in confirmed bull mode, it will take at least 1-2 months. June-July should be months of volatility, with ups and downs creating greed, panic and fear. Rise will be treated with skepticism and disbelief and invite selling and profit booking...falls will be seen as opportunity by many to short sell and also raise hopes of buying lower...this will be followed by consolidation of the market and then a gradual rise which will be accompanied by hesitancy and disbelief again, this time by bulls and bears both...finally when it dawns that market has changed course, money waiting on the sidelines will enter (albeit at much higher levels). You must only be a buyer on declines or hold on to shares...not at all be a seller.
There is nothing wrong with the India story. Our sources say FIIs are gung-ho on India and lot of money is waiting to be deployed. Mutual funds are also at comfort. All MRH (main reh gaya) people unable to benefit from previous rally are just waiting to pump money and hedge funds who have been bruised are equally impatient to buy. So let’s see who bells the cat first....
Digest the pain. You have lived almost 90% of it. Bear 10% more with closed eyes. Do not look much at markets for 1-2 months (i.e. if you cannot buy lower) and you will see things have changed in your favour without doing anything...sometimes time heals faster and is better than any medicine or measure.
Published with thanks to:
Giving market advises for Profitability @ High Probability
People who read this article also read:

17 June 2006

Boss has no Socceritis

I am a cricket fan out and out and like many Indians out there watch Tennis with good interest too.

I promise you I have been having interest in Tennis watching even before Sania Mirza burst into the scene with her tight t'shirts and thigh gripping shorts.

Then I watch billiards and snooker (don't know the difference between the two, however).

When I wanted to go little ungentlemanly I used to watch (like many of my countrymen) Hockey, especially when India played Pakistan.

In a nut(?)shell I have interest in the indoor and outdoor games that had smaller balls in play.

As far bigger balls that were kicked around, I do not have much interest, though it is a rage world over especially when there is this once in four years event called World Cup. Quite a lot of people around the world, cutting across time lines, stay awake to watch Soccer irrespective of whether their country was in contention or not. They simply pick one team to support and tango on.

It is also a fact that people bunk offices to be able to watch the game.

These are the times when humorists on the net come up with interesting mail forwards (who is the author?). One such forward was sent to me on email (!) by my room-mate who sits in front of the computer 28 hours a day plus the six or seven hours he sleeps in front of it.

I found the forward interesting enough to be shared with you folks.

Memo to staff: Get some work done By Melvin Durai

From: Company president
To: All staff

Subject: Low productivity

It has come to my attention that productivity has dropped drastically since Friday, June 9th. I'm not sure what's going on, but please be assured that I'm monitoring the situation closely and will suspend or terminate employees who aren't pulling their own weight. For the company to be successful, it's important for all of us to work hard. We need to learn from the examples set by the following managers, whom I'm pleased to recognize.

John Tembo, Human Resources Manager: I was walking past John's office and heard him and several employees shouting "Goal! Goal! Goal!" When I knocked on the door, John told me they were watching a training video to help them achieve company goals. I have nominated each of them for our Employee of the Month Award. It's important for all of us to focus on goals. As John said, "Without goals, our team will lose."

Carlos Mendez, Sales and Distribution Manager: Carlos called me on Friday morning to say he was ill and couldn't come to work. His doctor had diagnosed him with a rare illness called socceritis. The illness affects patients for at least a month and there's a chance of relapse every four years. As you can imagine, I was rather shocked and saddened. I wondered how we could manage without Carlos for so long. Perhaps Carlos read my mind, for he immediately put me at ease. "I'll come to work, boss," he said. "The illness isn't contagious. I just need to return home to get 90 minutes of rest a few times a day." What an example Carlos is setting for all of us. I am nominating him for our Courage and Inspiration Award.

Ravi Narayanan, Product Design Manager: As of Friday, Ravi is testing an innovative program he developed called WHFH (Work Hard From Home). He believes it will not only increase productivity in his department but also lower costs considerably, particularly the cost of buying coffee and doughnuts. Ravi came to work briefly on Tuesday and I overheard him saying to another manager, "South Korea 2, Togo 1." I asked him about it and he said, "That's the number of customers we have in each country." I was extremely pleased. I didn't realize we had a customer in Togo. I am nominating Ravi for our Innovative Spirit Award.

Hans Mueller, Advertising Manager: Hans, as you know, is always looking for new ways to advertise, new ways to reach potential customers. Since Friday, he has been personally manning an information booth at the ESPN Sports Bar. I paid a surprise visit to the bar and heard Hans talking to an employee about something called "World Cup." He told me it's an acronym he's using to motivate employees: WORLDCUP (Working Overtime Results in Less Disappointment and Creates an Upsurge in Productivity.) I am nominating Hans for the High Motivation Award.

Ming Yu, Technology Manager: I found Ming coming out of a bathroom stall with a small battery-operated TV. He said he's testing a video conferencing system that will enable employees to continue to work while doing their business. A few minutes later, I heard Ming telling his assistant how many customers we have in certain countries. I was proud to hear all the numbers, but disappointed to realize we have no customers in America. That's a huge market that we're missing out on. In any case, I am nominating Ming for the Bathroom Productivity Award.
(Football world cup 2006 FIFA Argentina Brazil England Costa Rica Germany France Italy Ronaldino Ronaldo Maradona Soccer Pele Beckham penalty kick corner hand of god goal)

Have you seen my other blog?

09 June 2006

Tulip Mania

Whether you are someone investing/ trading in shares are not, you must have surely followed with some interest the headline grabing stories starting some time in 2nd week of May 2006 till now about the speed with which the stock market indices have fallen and the resultant wealth erosion to countless stock market enthusiasts across the country.

People have given various reasons for the fall, from FII selling to negative global cues to overvalued stock prices to increasing fiscal deficit to whatever is the thought of whoever who thinks he has the right reason for the fall.

If you were a stock market enthusiast but had the privilege of watching it from outside of the ring then you would have got the out of box view of the comedy that was being played at investors as the sensex and nifty gyrated up and down all on its own taking the advisors and predictors and analysts off guard all the time.

That dance was to me one of the most entertaining one.

All analysts will shout in one go 10070 strong support, it must hold. And as if they were Gods (must be crazy) Sensex will stop, pause, smile at the analysts and then will turn around for the crazy Gods to shout "I told you". And before their chorus would have died, the market would put the reverse gear in fifth gear and pass below the 10070 mark with even greater speed.

The musicians will not stop there, they will say, 9800, it must hold. This selling cannot continue, the India story (is it only a story? Haven't we been thinking it is real?) was in tact and 9800 must hold, must hold. They waved their Elliot Waves and trendline wands across the graphs and assured the investors.

Sensex, came to 9800 and then conquered the musicians. Going for a even wilder twist(er) it took all in its path and went down even further. The marketmen shouted 9500, it will hold (whom?). Buy at every fall, stocks are going cheap, they shouted. Some thought they were contrarians.

They told investors to wait. Sensex seems to be going downward. Some said 7K was on the cards. All FIIs have lost interest in India (all of a sudden). Indian Mutual Funds were facing redemption troubles. People were asked to cough up cash margins for the positions they had taken in futures markets.

Some said the market needed a healthy correction (12.7K to 9K in a matter of 3 weeks, is it healthy correction?) and so investors need not panic. They said 8K was possible but then buying can come.

Some said the Sensex had breached 200 EMA, DMA (and B. Com., M.Com., CFA, CA etc. etc.) and so dooms days was back.

Sensex, saw them. Found how pathetic they sounded. Marched past 9500 and stopped to take a breather at 9200+.

What all forgot was that markets were the reflection of the crowd behaviour rather than the EMAs DMAs. To me the crowd has started getting hit badly and they are wriggling out licking their wounds. Till such time they are fully out and again come back to get back in the hope of getting back whatever they lost out from the same markets, the momentum on the upside will be weak.

Crowd behaviour is best explained in in the following article.

THE TULIPOMANIA

Quis furor o cives! -- Lucan.

The tulip,--so named, it is said, from a Turkish word, signifying a turban,-- was introduced into western Europe about the middle of the sixteenth century. Conrad Gesner, who claims the merit of having brought it into repute,--little dreaming of the extraordinary commotion it was to make in the world,--says that he first saw it in the year 1559, in a garden at Augsburg, belonging to the learned Counsellor Herwart, a man very famous in his day for his collection of rare exotics. The bulbs were sent to this gentleman by a friend at Constantinople, where the flower had long been a favourite. In the course of ten or eleven years after this period, tulips were much sought after by the wealthy, especially in Holland and Germany. Rich people at Amsterdam sent for the bulbs direct to Constantinople, and paid the most extravagant prices for them. The first roots planted in England were brought from Vienna in 1600. Until the year 1634 the tulip annually increased in reputation, until it was deemed a proof of bad taste in any man of fortune to be without a collection of them. Many learned men, including Pompeius de Angelis and the celebrated Lipsius of Leyden, the author of the treatise "De Constantia," were passionately fond of tulips. The rage for possessing them soon caught the middle classes of society, and merchants and shopkeepers, even of moderate means, began to vie with each other in the rarity of these flowers and the preposterous prices .they paid for them. A trader at Harlaem was known to pay one-half of his fortune for a single root--not with the design of selling it again at a profit, but to keep in his own conservatory for the admiration of his acquaintance.

One would suppose that there must have been some great virtue in this flower to have made it so valuable in the eyes of so prudent a people as the Dutch; but it has neither the beauty nor the perfume of the rose--hardly the beauty of the "sweet, sweet-pea;" neither is it as enduring as either. Cowley, it is true, is loud in its praise. He says--

"The tulip next appeared, all over gay, But wanton, full of pride, and full of play; The world can't show a dye but here has place; Nay, by new mixtures, she can change her face; Purple and gold are both beneath her care- The richest needlework she loves to wear; Her only study is to please the eye, And to outshine the rest in finery."

This, though not very poetical, is the description of a poet. Beckmann, in his History of Inventions, paints it with more fidelity, and in prose more pleasing than Cowley's poetry. He says, "There are few plants which acquire, through accident, weakness, or disease, so many variegations as the tulip. When uncultivated, and in its natural state, it is almost of one colour, has large leaves, and an extraordinarily long stem. When it has been weakened by cultivation, it becomes more agreeable in the eyes of the florist. The petals are then paler, smaller, and more diversified in hue; and the leaves acquire a softer green colour. Thus this masterpiece of culture, the more beautiful it turns, grows so much the weaker, so that, with the greatest skill and most careful attention, it can scarcely be transplanted, or even kept alive."

Many persons grow insensibly attached to that which gives them a great deal of trouble, as a mother often loves her sick and ever-ailing child better than her more healthy offspring. Upon the same principle we must account for the unmerited encomia lavished upon these fragile blossoms. In 1634, the rage among the Dutch to possess them was so great that the ordinary industry of the country was neglected, and the population, even to its lowest dregs, embarked in the tulip trade. As the mania increased, prices augmented, until, in the year 1635, many persons were known to invest a fortune of 100,000 florins in the purchase of forty roots. It then became necessary to sell them by their weight in perits, a small weight less than a grain. A tulip of the species called Admiral Liefken, weighing 400 perits, was worth 4400 florins; an Admiral Von der Eyk, weighing 446 perits, was worth 1260 florins; a shilder of 106 perits was worth 1615 florins; a viceroy of 400 perits, 3000 florins, and, most precious of all, a Semper Augustus, weighing 200 perits, was thought to be very cheap at 5500 florins. The latter was much sought after, and even an inferior bulb might command a price of 2000 florins. It is related that, at one time, early in 1636, there were only two roots of this description to be had in all Holland, and those not of the best. One was in the possession of a dealer in Amsterdam, and the other in Harlaem. So anxious were the speculators to obtain them that one person offered the fee-simple of twelve acres of building ground for the Harlaem tulip. That of Amsterdam was bought for 4600 florins, a new carriage, two grey horses, and a complete suit of harness. Munting, an industrious author of that day, who wrote a folio volume of one thousand pages upon the tulipomania, has preserved the following list of the various articles, and their value, which were delivered for one single root of the rare species called the viceroy :-- florins. Two lasts of wheat.............. 448 Four lasts of rye............... 558 Four fat oxen................... 480 Eight fat swine................. 240 Twelve fat sheep................ 120 Two hogsheads of wine........... 70 Four tuns of beer............... 32 Two tons of butter.............. 192 One thousand lbs. of cheese..... 120 A complete bed.................. 100 A suit of clothes............... 8O A silver drinking cup........... 6O ----- 2500 -----

People who had been absent from Holland, and whose chance it was to return when this folly was at its maximum, were sometimes led into awkward dilemmas by their ignorance. There is an amusing instance of the kind related in Blainville's Travels. A wealthy merchant, who prided himself not a little on his rare tulips, received upon one occasion a very valuable consignment of merchandise from the Levant. Intelligence of its arrival was brought him by a sailor, who presented himself for that purpose at the counting-house, among bales of goods of every description. The merchant, to reward him for his news, munificently made him a present of a fine red herring for his breakfast. The sailor had, it appears, a great partiality for onions, and seeing a bulb very like an onion lying upon the counter of this liberal trader, and thinking it, no doubt, very much out of its place among silks and velvets, he slily seized an opportunity and slipped it into his pocket, as a relish for his herring. He got clear off with his prize, and proceeded to the quay to eat his breakfast. Hardly was his back turned when the merchant missed his valuable Semper Augustus, worth three thousand florins, or about 280 pounds sterling. The whole establishment was instantly in an uproar; search was everywhere made for the precious root, but it was not to be found. Great was the merchant's distress of mind. The search was renewed, but again without success. At last some one thought of the sailor.

The unhappy merchant sprang into the street at the bare suggestion. His alarmed household followed him. The sailor, simple soul! had not thought of concealment. He was found quietly sitting on a coil of ropes, masticating the last morsel of his "onion." Little did he dream that he had been eating a breakfast whose cost might have regaled a whole ship's crew for a twelvemonth; or, as the plundered merchant himself expressed it, "might have sumptuously feasted the Prince of Orange and the whole court of the Stadtholder." Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange: but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring. The most unfortunate part of the business for him was, that he remained in prison for some months, on a charge of felony, preferred against him by the merchant.

Another story is told of an English traveller, which is scarcely less ludicrous. This gentleman, an amateur botanist, happened to see a tulip-root lying in the conservatory of a wealthy Dutchman. Being ignorant of its quality, he took out his penknife, and peeled off its coats, with the view of making experiments upon it. When it was by this means reduced to half its original size, he cut it into two equal sections, making all the time many learned remarks on the singular appearances of the unknown bulb. Suddenly the owner pounced upon him, and, with fury in his eyes, asked him if he knew what he had been doing? "Peeling a most extraordinary onion," replied the philosopher. "Hundert tausend duyvel," said the Dutchman; "it's an Admiral Van der E. yck." "Thank you," replied the traveller, taking out his note-book to make a memorandum of the same; "are these admirals common in your country?" "Death and the devil," said the Dutchman, seizing the astonished man of science by the collar; "come before the syndic, and you shall see." In spite of his remonstrances, the traveller was led through the streets, followed by a mob of persons. When brought into the presence of the magistrate, he learned, to his consternation, that the root upon which he had been experimentalizing was worth four thousand florins; and, notwithstanding all he could urge in extenuation, he was lodged in prison until he found securities for the payment of this sum.

The demand for tulips of a rare species increased so much in the year 1636, that regular marts for their sale were established on the Stock Exchange of Amsterdam, in Rotterdam, Harlaem, Leyden, Alkmar, Hoorn, and other towns. Symptoms of gambling now became, for the first time, apparent. The stockjobbers, ever on the alert for a new speculation, dealt largely in tulips, making use of all the means they so well knew how to employ, to cause fluctuations in prices. At first, as in all these gambling mania, confidence was at its height, and everybody gained. The tulip-jobbers speculated in the rise and fall of the tulip stocks, and made large profits by buying when prices fell, and selling out when they rose. Many individuals grew suddenly rich. A golden bait hung temptingly out before the people, and, one after the other, they rushed to the tulip marts, like flies around a honeypot. Every one imagined that the passion for tulips would last for ever, and that the wealthy from every part of the world would send to Holland, and pay whatever prices were asked for them. The riches of Europe would be concentrated on the shores of the Zuyder Zee, and poverty banished from the favoured clime of Holland. Nobles, citizens, farmers, mechanics, seamen, footmen, maidservants, even chimney-sweeps and old clotheswomen, dabbled in tulips. People of all grades converted their property into cash, and invested it in flowers. Houses and lands were offered for sale at ruinously low prices, or assigned in payment of bargains made at the tulip-mart. Foreigners became smitten with the same frenzy, and money poured into Holland from all directions. The prices of the necessaries of life rose again by degrees; houses and lands, horses and carriages, and luxuries of every sort, rose in value with them, and for some months Holland seemed the very antechamber of Plutus. The operations of the trade became so extensive and so intricate, that it was found necessary to draw up a code of laws for the guidance of the dealers. Notaries and clerks were also appointed, who devoted themselves exclusively to the interests of the trade. The designation of public notary was hardly known in some towns, that of tulip notary usurping its place. In the smaller towns, where there was no exchange, the principal tavern was usually selected as the "showplace," where high and low traded in tulips, and confirmed their bargains over sumptuous entertainments. These dinners were sometimes attended by two or three hundred persons, and large vases of tulips, in full bloom, were placed at regular intervals upon the tables and sideboards, for their gratification during the repast.

At last, however, the more prudent began to see that this folly could not last for ever. Rich people no longer bought the flowers to keep them in their gardens, but to sell them again at cent. per cent. profit. It was seen that somebody must lose fearfully in the end. As this conviction spread, prices fell, and never rose again. Confidence was destroyed, and a universal panic seized upon the dealers. A had agreed to purchase ten Sempers Augustines from B, at four thousand florins each, at six weeks after the signing of the contract. B was ready with the flowers at the appointed time; but the price had fallen to three or four hundred florins, and A refused either to pay the difference or receive the tulips. Defaulters were announced day after day in all the towns of Holland. Hundreds who, a few months previously, had begun to doubt that there was such a thing as poverty in the land, suddenly found themselves the possessors of a few bulbs, which nobody would buy, even though they offered them at one quarter of the sums they had paid for them. The cry of distress resounded everywhere, and each man accused his neighbour. The few who had contrived to enrich themselves hid their wealth from the knowledge of their fellow-citizens, and invested it in the English or other funds. Many who, for a brief season, had emerged from the humbler walks of life, were cast back into their original obscurity. Substantial merchants were reduced almost to beggary, and many a representative of a noble line saw the fortunes of his house ruined beyond redemption.

When the first alarm subsided, the tulip-holders in the several towns held public meetings to devise what measures were best to be taken to restore public credit. It was generally agreed, that deputies should be sent from all parts to Amsterdam, to consult with the government upon some remedy for the evil. The Government at first refused to interfere, but advised the tulip-holders to agree to some plan among themselves. Several meetings were held for this purpose; but no measure could be devised likely to give satisfaction to the deluded people, or repair even a slight portion of the mischief that had been done. The language of complaint and reproach was in everybody's mouth, and all the meetings were of the most stormy character. At last, however, after much bickering and ill-will, it was agreed, at Amsterdam, by the assembled deputies, that all contracts made in the height of the mania, or prior to the month of November 1636, should be declared null and void, and that, in those made after that date, purchasers should be freed from their engagements, on paying ten per cent. to the vendor. This decision gave no satisfaction. The vendors who had their tulips on hand were, of course, discontented, and those who had pledged themselves to purchase, thought themselves hardly treated. Tulips which had, at one time, been worth six thousand florins, were now to be procured for five hundred; so that the composition of ten per cent. was one hundred florins more than the actual value. Actions for breach of contract were threatened in all the courts of the country; but the latter refused to take cognizance of gambling transactions.

The matter was finally referred to the Provincial Council at the Hague, and it was confidently expected that the wisdom of this body would invent some measure by which credit should be restored. Expectation was on the stretch for its decision, but it never came. The members continued to deliberate week after week, and at last, after thinking about it for three months, declared that they could offer no final decision until they had more information. They advised, however, that, in the mean time, every vendor should, in the presence of witnesses, offer the tulips in natura to the purchaser for the sums agreed upon. If the latter refused to take them, they might be put up for sale by public auction, and the original contractor held responsible for the difference between the actual and the stipulated price. This was exactly the plan recommended by the deputies, and which was already shown to be of no avail. There was no court in Holland which would enforce payment. The question was raised in Amsterdam, but the judges unanimously refused to interfere, on the ground that debts contracted in gambling were no debts in law.

Thus the matter rested. To find a remedy was beyond the power of the government. Those who were unlucky enough to have had stores of tulips on hand at the time of the sudden reaction were left to bear their ruin as philosophically as they could; those who had made profits were allowed to keep them; but the commerce of the country suffered a severe shock, from which it was many years ere it recovered.

The example of the Dutch was imitated to some extent in England. In the year 1636 tulips were publicly sold in the Exchange of London, and the jobbers exerted themselves to the utmost to raise them to the fictitious value they had acquired in Amsterdam. In Paris also the jobbers strove to create a tulipomania. In both cities they only partially succeeded. However, the force of example brought the flowers into great favour, and amongst a certain class of people tulips have ever since been prized more highly than any other flowers of the field. The Dutch are still notorious for their partiality to them, and continue to pay higher prices for them than any other people. As the rich Englishman boasts of his fine race-horses or his old pictures, so does the wealthy Dutchman vaunt him of his tulips.

In England, in our day, strange as it may appear, a tulip will produce more money than an oak. If one could be found, rara in tetris, and black as the black swan alluded to by Juvenal, its price would equal that of a dozen acres of standing corn. In Scotland, towards the close of the seventeenth century, the highest price for tulips, according to the authority of a writer in the supplement to the third edition of the "Encyclopedia Britannica," was ten guineas. Their value appears to have diminished from that time till the year 1769, when the two most valuable species in England were the Don Quevedo and the Valentinier, the former of which was worth two guineas and the latter two guineas and a half. These prices appear to have been the minimum. In the year 1800, a common price was fifteen guineas for a single bulb. In 1835, so foolish were the fanciers, that a bulb of the species called the Miss Fanny Kemble was sold by public auction in London for seventy-five pounds. Still more astonishing was the price of a tulip in the possession of a gardener in the King's Road, Chelsea. In his catalogues, it was labelled at two hundred guineas! Thus a flower, which for beauty and perfume was surpassed by the abundant roses of the garden,--a nosegay of which might be purchased for a penny,--was priced at a sum which would have provided an industrious labourer and his family with food, and clothes, and lodging for six years! Should chickweed and groundsel ever come into fashion, the wealthy would, no doubt, vie with each other in adorning their gardens with them, and paying the most extravagant prices for them. In so doing, they would hardly be more foolish than the admirers of tulips. The common prices for these flowers at the present time vary from five to fifteen guineas, according to the rarity of the species.


Have you seen my other blog?

28 May 2006

Cricket, well reserved

Reservations, though was necessary for equalising the social injustice done to a section of the population over many years, has now become almost meaningless especially when the same is being used by politicians as a vote grabbing tool.

We have seen a Mandal Maniac in V.P. Singh, who to counter the farmer brigade of Devi Lal divided the entire country into two with his idea of implementing Mandal Commission recommendations. I still remember the stickers on cars on Delhi roads in those days that screamed "Don't blame me, I didn't vote for VP".

After that there have been countless attempts by the politicians in power and out of power to rake up this issue and divide the people. Now there is another Singh who is trying the same route. The problem is no politician worth the salt in the country is able to raise his voice against the latest idea as everyone wants to have a share of the "reserved" votes.

I do not know how many of these politicians will be ready to be operated by a 'reserve qualified' doctor or would have his 'indirect businesses' run by a 'reserve qualified MBA'. As long as it affects only the general public it is not a problem for them. For they can get imported doctors for checking up the kidney of a Pramod Mahajan or the heart of a Murasoli Maran. If it is just voting public, 'go to heaven - as politicians make India hell'.

I will rather prefer a rule from election commission that unless all sons and daughters of a contesting candidate studies in a Government School, they will be disqualified from contesting. Then you will see the quality of these educational institutions improving.

So much for serious writing. Now, I have some interesting forward from one of my friends. This is purported to be a speech of Mr. Azim Premji, Chairman, Wipro, on reservations in Cricket. Read on.

**************************
I think we should have job reservations in all the fields. I completely support the PM and all the politicians for promoting this.
Let's start the reservation with our cricket team. We should have 10 percent reservation for Muslims. 30 percent for OBC, SC/ST like that. Cricket rules should be modified accordingly. The boundary circle should be reduced for an SC/ST player. The four hit by an OBC player should be considered as a six and a six hit by an OBC player should be counted as 8 runs. An OBC player scoring 60 runs should be declared as a century.

We should influence ICC and make rules so that the pace bowlers like Shoaib Akhtar should not bowl fast balls to our OBC player. Bowlers should bowl maximum speed of 80 kilometer per hour to an OBC player. Any delivery above this speed should be made illegal.

Also we should have reservation in Olympics. In the 100 meters race, an OBC player should be given a gold medal if he runs 80 meters.

There can be reservation in Government jobs also. Let's recruit SC/ST and OBC pilots for aircrafts which are carrying the ministers and politicians (that can really help the country...)

Ensure that only SC/ST and OBC doctors do the operations for the ministers and other politicians. (Another way of saving the country...)

Let's be creative and think of ways and means to guide INDIA forward...
Lets show the world that INDIA is a GREAT country.
Let's be proud of being an INDIAN...

May the good breed of politicians like ARJUN SINGH long live...

Have you seen my other blog?