AAADD syndrome

Anyone else have this problem?

I have recently been diagnosed with AAADD - Age Activated Attention Deficit Disorder.

This is how it goes.....

Its my weekend and I decide to organize myself. I need to tidy up a lot. I decide to start with my Car. It needs a washing. So I decide to wash the car. I walk towards the garage. Then I reaslise I need to pick up the keys, to clean the interior of the car. I go back and remember I kept the car keys on the working table.

I go near the table and notice there are lots of mails that I have to open and read. I decide, I will wash the car, but first, let me clear those mails. I pick up the mails, I decide to first sort out the junk mails. If I clear them then I can go thru only those that are relevant.

I pick up the junk and throw them to the wastepaper basket. As I do I notice the trash is full. It needs to be cleared. I decide to see the mails but before I should clear the trash. I pick the trash can walk and I notice there are bills to be paid, kept on the dining table. Oh, its better I pay these. I will empty the trash, but before that, let me first write out checks for those bills. I keep the basket down, pick up the bills.

Let me go to the working table to write the checks.

Yes, Now where is the check book?

Oops... there's only one check left. Where did I put the extra checks?

Oh, there's my empty plastic cup from last night on my desk.

I'm going to look for those checks...BUT FIRST I need to put the cup back in the kitchen.

I head for the kitchen, look out the window, notice the flowers need a drink of water, I put the cup on the counter and there's my extra pair of glasses on the kitchen counter.

What are they doing here? I'll just put them away...BUT FIRST need to water those plants.

I head for the door and...

Aaaagh! Someone left the TV remote in the wrong spot.

Okay, I'll put the remote away and water the plants...

BUT FIRST I need to find those checks.

END OF DAY: car not washed, bills still unpaid, cup still in the sink, check book still has only one check left, lost my car keys; and, when I try to figure out why nothing got done today, I'm baffled because...I KNOW I WAS BUSY ALL DAY!

I realize this condition is serious... I'd get help...BUT FIRST... I think I'll check my e-mail, I have to clear that inbox.

Realised my condition?

Do you have this syndrome?

Then can you make an appointment with the doctor for both of us?

Wait, first, let us find a doctor. Google? Ah, the connection is fast, let me check the bank account to see the credits and debits....

Invest in Gold

I strongly consider Gold to be an excellent investment opportunity for the coming years. And my conviction has increased even more after reading Mr. Ajit Dayal at http://www.equitymaster.com/ . He has given the rationale on why Gold should move up.

I subscribe to his views. Besides the various statistics and points put forth by Mr. Ajit Dayal, my reason for "investing" in gold are below: (mind you, I am saying "investing" and not buying the metal for your wife! - that is illiquid and usually make you to make a "spirited" run to the liquids of largely golden color):

1. Its a scarce commodity

2. Two of the world's most populous nations (China & India) and the women in the monied Arab world have enormous love for the yellow metal

3. It has not revalued itself for the inflationary effects - the price is almost inflation neutral for the past 27 years.

4. A scarce commodity with so much demand, must pick up speed in the price

5. If you are someone dealing in Indian Markets, the most important reason to buy Gold will be that neither the Government or the Left front can do anything about a Gold price increase!

I suggest that one takes a serious look at the Gold Exchange Traded Funds and invest in Gold. Some of the listed funds are - Reliance Gold Fund, Benchmark Gold Fund etc.

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Reliance on Power?

The markets seem to be powering ahead and attaining the pinnacle of glory from the Reliance Power issue.

The market is being electrified by such powerful issues. Companies with nothing in their books of accounts issue paper (well in demat times, not even paper) for big prices and the electrified investors queue up to gobble the shares on offer.

I read in one of the websites dedicated to stock markets that it is not worthwhile to apply for the impending high priced public issue of Reliance Power as it will get obscenely oversubscribed. So there will be no value in subscribing. (Don't know if they intended pun as regards the "value").

In these charged up times, it is difficult to find or hear sane voices. However, I heard one. Thanks to http://www.equitymaster.com for echoing the voice of the master, as below:

Buffett in his 2000 letter to shareholders mentions “Investors, mesmerized by soaring stock prices and ignoring all else, piled into these enterprises. It was as if some virus, racing wildly among investment professionals as well as amateurs, induced hallucinations in which the values of stocks in certain sectors became decoupled from the values of the businesses that underlay them. This surreal scene was accompanied by much loose talk about "value creation." What actually occurs in these cases is wealth transfer, often on a massive scale. But a pin lies in wait for every bubble. And when the two eventually meet, a new wave of investors learns some very old lessons: First, many in Wall Street- a community in which quality control is not prized-will sell investors anything they will buy. Second, speculation is most dangerous when it looks easiest.”

That was at the height of the previous great boom.

Do we see history repeating itself?

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Mera Bharath Mahan

TATA

You have made India Proud

You have made Indians proud

Pehle aap Indica Car banaya!

Ab aapne Indian ca Car banadiye!

(Earlier you made Indica Car! Now you have made Indian's Car!)

We are feeling head and shoulders above in the world

We salute your Engineering Marvel

Hats off to you!!!

Normally we say TATA to say bye

We now say TATA to Welcome.

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Tata Chem & Orchid Chem

Happy New Year my dear readers.

For the Indian stock market enthusiasts (Or should I call them old fashioned - Investors?) looking for that great stock or two, here is some choice from Sharekhan.

Bullish on Tata Chem & Orchid Chem: Sharekhan

2008-01-01 15:53:30 Source : CNBC-TV18

Hemang Jani, AVP, Sharekhan, said he is bullish on Orchid Chemicals and Tata Chemicals from the midcap space.

Orchid Chemicals exports formulations to the US and Europe, he said. "The company is venturing into the non-antibiotic space. It has identified over 80 products across various segments. Orchid Chemicals has marketing alliances with Actavis, Stada (Dava), and Par Pharma." The company is trading at 17.5 times the estimated earnings of FY08 and 12.8 times the estimated earnings of FY09, he added.

Soda ash prices are up by 60%, which will benefit Tata Chemicals, he said. "The soda ash capacity addition will lead to volume growth. The company has an investment portfolio of Rs 4,600 crore, which works out to about Rs 187 per share." The company is trading at 13.5 times estimated FY09 earnings with an EV/EBIDTA of 6.6 times, he added.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Hemang Jani:

Q: Why do you like Tata Chemicals and what is the kind of price target that you are setting?

A: We like this stock because it is one of the world’s largest producers of soda ash. Prices of soda ash have moved up over the last six-months. They have gone up by about 60%. Currently, they are in the range of about USD 260-300 per tonne. Due to this, Tata Chemicals would be able to report a very good growth over the next 1-2 years.

Apart from that, there is also going to be windfall gains because of the debottlenecking of urea capacity. Tata Chemicals also has an investment portfolio of Rs 4,600 crore, which works out to about Rs 187 per share. Currently, it is available at a very reasonable valuation of about 14 times 2009 diluted earnings. We have set a price target of about Rs 535 for Tata Chemicals.

Q: Orchid Chemicals is the other stock that you like. How much of a run up do you think will come in from here? What are the factors in it favour?

A: Orchid Chemicals would do extremely well in 2008. In fact, people are looking out for stocks, which are available at a reasonable valuation and where the growth is going to be quite strong.

Orchid has displayed exceptionally good performance in the first half of 2008, mainly because of its focus on some niche products, where the competition is minimal and margins are high in the generic market. Orchid’s much awaited entry into Europe is very close now. They are going to be launching a Tazo-Pip formulation there, which should be a big blockbuster drug for it.

There will also be a host of Para IV filings. We feel the company should be able to do exceptionally well. Currently, it is available at about 18 times 2008 and about 13 times 2009 earnings. We have set a target of about Rs 375 on the stock.

Q: Any disclosures on both of them?

A: Personally, I don’t hold the stocks. But both these ideas are under our coverage, so our clients would be holding them.

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